The Same Old Story
If you listen to the MSM, then you’re probably worried that the Democrats are poised to triumph in November. I just catch little glimpses of these stories, but they seem awfully familiar. A parade of experts explains that various technical factors and trends all favor a big Democrat win. Americans are mad about the war. American hate Bush. Americans now understand the wicked bigotry of Middle America and the horrors of the Bushitler political machine. Or whatever.
Jim Geraghty on NRO has a piece that laughs this off. He points out that the MSM and Democrats have been making these bold predictions over and over for several years now. The failure of each wave of predictions seems to embolden rather than embarrass.
The simple fact is that polls this far in advance of an election mean nothing, because most voters pay very little attention to politics until right before the election. Most people have jobs and families that fill their days, and they take only a few hours a week or two before the election to read about the candidates, watch some political TV, or talk to a trusted friend before deciding how to vote.
If you start with those people in mind, then you can see how the Democrats and MSM delude themselves year after year. The Democrat positions are designed for surface appeal—and they succeed at that. With MSM help, the Democrats are very effective at vague soundbites: Bush lied; people died. Iraq is a quagmire. Culture of corruption. Etc. And those soundbites are very effective on the people who don’t pay much attention—but only for as long as they don’t pay much attention. The Democrats and MSM keep hoping that those people will never really pay attention, and they’ll vote on the basis of bumper-sticker slogans.
But American voters aren’t nearly as stupid as the Democrats and MSM wish they were. It only takes a few minutes’ thought for most Americans to see that the Republicans may not be perfect, but they’re far better than the alternative.
And I think that the bumper-sticker slogans backfire: In presenting childish arguments for their side, the Democrats not only show that they don’t have any serious ideas of their own. They also display their contempt for the voters. I think that many of the voters notice that before election day, and vote accordingly.